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Coronavirus Death Rate: What Are The Chances Of Dying?
The UK government's scientific advisers believe that the chances of dying from a coronavirus infection are between 0.5% and 1%.
This is lower than the rate of death among confirmed cases - which is 4% globally in WHO figures and 5% in the UK as of March 23 - because not all infections are confirmed by testing.
Each country has its own way of deciding who gets tested, so comparing case numbers or apparent death rates across countries can also be misleading.
Death rates also depend on a range of factors like your age and general health, and the care you can access.
What are the risks for people like me?
The elderly and the unwell are more likely to die, if they contract coronavirus.
Current estimates from Imperial College London are that the death rate is almost 10 times higher than average for those over 80, and much lower for those under 40.
The UK government's chief medical advisor, Professor Chris Whitty, says even though the rates are higher for older people, "the great majority of older people will have a mild or moderate disease".
He also warns that we should not think it's a trivial infection for younger people, pointing out that there are some young people who have ended up in intensive care.
It's not just age that determines the risk of infections.
In the first big analysis of more than 44,000 cases from China, deaths were at least five times more common among confirmed cases with diabetes, high blood pressure or heart or breathing problems.
All of these factors interact with each other and we don't yet have a complete picture of the risk for every type of person in every location.
And even though patterns in the death rates among confirmed cases can tell us who is most at risk, they can't tell us about the precise risk in any single group.
The death rate in confirmed cases is not the overall death rate
Most cases of most viruses go uncounted because people tend not to visit the doctor with mild symptoms.
On 17 March, the chief scientific adviser for the UK, Sir Patrick Vallance, estimated there were about 55,000 cases in the UK, when the confirmed case count was just under 2,000.
Dividing deaths by 2,000 will give you a much higher death rate than dividing by 55,000.
That's one of the biggest reasons why the death rates among confirmed cases are a bad estimate of the true death rates: overestimating the severity by missing cases.
But you can also get it wrong in the other direction: underestimating the death rate by not taking into account those people currently infected who may eventually die.
The first big studies into death rates were done in China
Why do death rates differ between countries?
Countries use different tests for the virus, have different testing capacity and different rules for who gets tested. All of these factors change over time.
The UK government plans to increase testing to 10,000 a day initially, with a goal of reaching 25,000 a day within four weeks. It currently restricts testing mainly to people in hospitals.
Germany has been testing more than 20,000 people a day
Germany has a daily testing capacity of more than 20,000 cases and has been testing people with mild symptoms.
So their counts of confirmed infections could capture different sections of the pyramid of cases shown above.
The death rate among confirmed cases in Germany (less than half a per cent) is among the lowest in Europe, but is expected to rise as the mix of patients getting tested changes.
Your prognosis also depends on the treatment that's available and whether the health service can deliver it.
In turn, that depends on the stage of the epidemic.
If a healthcare system gets swamped with cases and intensive care units can't treat people who need ventilation, then the death rate would go up.
Social distancing has left some London landmarks empty
How do scientists work out the true death rate?
Scientists combine individual pieces of evidence about each of these questions to build a picture of the death rate.
For example, they estimate the proportion of cases with mild symptoms from small, defined groups of people who are monitored very tightly, like those on repatriated flights.
But slightly different answers from these targeted pieces of evidence will add up to big changes in the overall picture.
And the evidence will change over time.
Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, points out that death rates could go down as well as up.
"With Ebola, they came down over time as people got better at treating the disease" but they can go up too: "If a healthcare system is overrun, then we see death rates rising".
So scientists give a an upper and a lower figure, as well as a best current estimate.
Have you been affected by the coronavirus? Or do you have any information to share? Get in touch by emailing haveyoursay@bbc.Co.Uk.
Please include a contact number if you are willing to speak to a BBC journalist. You can also contact us in the following ways:
Coronavirus: What is the UK advice for me?
How can I tell if I've got Covid?
What is the UK's plan and what could happen next?
Shares drop in worst week since financial crisis
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Watermelon 101: Nutrition Facts And Health Benefits
Watermelon is loaded with citrulline and lycopene, two powerful plant compounds linked to lower blood pressure, improved metabolic health, and decreased muscle soreness after exercise.
The watermelon (Citrullus lanatus) is a large, sweet fruit originally from southern Africa. It's related to cantaloupe, zucchini, pumpkin, and cucumber.
Watermelon is packed with water and nutrients, contains very few calories, and is exceptionally refreshing.
What's more, it's a good dietary source of both citrulline and lycopene, two powerful plant compounds.
This juicy melon may have several health benefits, including lower blood pressure, improved insulin sensitivity, and reduced muscle soreness.
While watermelons are predominantly eaten fresh, they can also be frozen, made into juice, or added to smoothies.
This article tells you everything you need to know about watermelon.
Carbs
Watermelon contains 12 grams of carbs per cup (152 grams).
The carbs are mostly simple sugars, such as glucose, fructose, and sucrose. Watermelon also provides a small amount of fiber.
The glycemic index (GI) — a measure of how quickly foods raise blood sugar levels after meals — of watermelons ranges from 72–80, which is high.
However, each serving of watermelon is relatively low in carbs, so eating it should not have a major effect on blood sugar levels.
Fibers
Watermelon is a poor source of fiber, providing only 0.4 grams per 2/3 cup (100 grams).
However, due to its fructose content, it is considered high in FODMAPs, or fermentable short-chain carbohydrates.
Eating high amounts of fructose can cause unpleasant digestive symptoms in individuals who cannot fully digest them, such as those with fructose malabsorption.
Calories
Watermelon is a good source of vitamin C and a decent source of several other vitamins and minerals.
Watermelon is a poor source of antioxidants compared to other fruits.
However, it's rich in the amino acid citrulline and the antioxidant lycopene, which have numerous benefits for health.
Citrulline
Watermelon is the richest known dietary source of the amino acid citrulline. The highest amount is found in the white rind that surrounds the flesh.
Both citrulline and arginine play an important role in the synthesis of nitric oxide, which helps lower blood pressure by dilating and relaxing your blood vessels.
Arginine is also important for many organs — such as your lungs, kidneys, liver, and immune and reproductive systems — and has been shown to facilitate wound healing.
Studies note that watermelon juice is a good source of citrulline and can increase blood levels of both citrulline and arginine considerably.
Lycopene
Watermelon is the best known fresh source of lycopene, a powerful antioxidant responsible for its red color.
In fact, fresh watermelon (4530 mcg per 100 g serving) is a better source of lycopene than tomatoes (2860 mcg in the same amount).
Human studies show that fresh watermelon juice is effective at raising blood levels of both lycopene and beta carotene.
Your body uses lycopene to some extent to form beta carotene, which is then converted into vitamin A.
Lower blood pressure
High blood pressure is a major risk factor for chronic disease and premature death.
Watermelon is a good source of citrulline, which is converted into arginine in your body. Both of these amino acids aid nitric oxide production.
Nitric oxide is a gas molecule that causes the tiny muscles around your blood vessels to relax and dilate. This leads to a reduction in blood pressure.
Supplementing with watermelon or its juice may reduce blood pressure and arterial stiffness in people with high blood pressure.
Reduced insulin resistance
Insulin is a vital hormone in your body and involved in blood sugar control.
Insulin resistance is the condition in which your cells become resistant to the effects of insulin. This can lead to elevated blood sugar levels and is linked to metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes.
Watermelon juice and arginine intake are associated with reduced insulin resistance in some studies.
Reduced muscle soreness after exercise
Muscle soreness is a well-known side effect of strenuous exercise.
One study showed that watermelon juice is effective at decreasing muscle soreness following exercise.
Research on watermelon juice (or citrulline) and exercise performance gives mixed results. One study found no effect, while another observed improved performance in untrained — but not well-trained — individuals.
Watermelon is well tolerated by most people.
However, it may cause allergic reactions or digestive problems in some individuals.
Allergy
Allergy to watermelon is rare and usually associated with oral-allergy syndrome in individuals who are sensitive to pollen.
Symptoms include itchy mouth and throat, as well as swelling of the lips, mouth, tongue, throat, and/or ears.
FODMAPs
Watermelon contains relatively high amounts of fructose, a type of FODMAP that some people do not fully digest.
FODMAPs like fructose may cause unpleasant digestive symptoms, such as bloating, gas, stomach cramps, diarrhea, and constipation.
Individuals who are sensitive to FODMAPs, such as those with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), should consider avoiding watermelons.
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